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Journal articleMartinez-Toledano C, Gethin A, 2026,
Changing political cleavages across democracies around the world
, Handbook of Political Economy -
Journal articleBonomi G, Uppal A, 2026, , Journal of Economic Theory, Vol: 237, ISSN: 0022-0531
We develop a model in which the central bank incorporates financial stability concerns into its monetary policy and communication decisions, while systemic banks strategically choose portfolios to influence policy. Because fully responding to economic shocks would generate policy surprises that threaten bank stability, the central bank underreacts to those shocks, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s response during the 2023 banking crisis. Anticipating this accommodation, banks tilt their portfolios to increase the financial-stability costs of rate hikes, pulling monetary policy toward lower rates while giving the central bank an incentive to announce higher future rates than it expects to set. Financial stability concerns can therefore backfire, creating a novel responsiveness–credibility trade-off: the more the central bank accommodates banks’ exposures ex post, the less credible its forward guidance becomes ex ante, making it harder for banks to align their portfolios with future policy and leaving them more exposed to policy surprises. Even when society values financial stability, it benefits from appointing a central banker who places less weight on it. Paradoxically, even banks may prefer such a central banker when the benefits of more credible guidance outweigh the loss of policy influence.
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Journal articleKitten M, Berardi C, 2026, , Frontiers in Public Health, Vol: 14
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Journal articleHarrison SP, Prentice IC, Ascoli D, et al., 2026, , Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2296-665X
Extreme wildfires are becoming more frequent in the Mediterranean region and already frequently exceed controllable thresholds, leading to large impacts on natural and social systems. Wildfire risk is predicted to increase in the region over the 21st century because of ongoing global climate changes. The risk of wildfires is being exacerbated by rural land abandonment, which is promoting increased landscape flammability; and by expansion of the wildland-urban interface. To address the challenges arising from fire regime changes, there is an urgent need to improve existing management strategies to reduce fire risk and to minimise the occurrence of extreme wildfires. Doing so successfully requires integrating insights across varied wildfire management paradigms, that stem from diverse disciplinary traditions and often serve competing policy priorities. Here we review the state of knowledge and practice on wildfire management in the Mediterranean region. We begin by highlighting the diversity of land management practices that deliberately or indirectly have been used for fire risk mitigation, shaping contemporary Mediterranean landscapes and fire regimes. We then summarise the evolution of policy priorities and fire management practices, and how these changes in infrastructural, economic and legal frameworks could influence landscape vulnerability to wildfire. We also examine some of the barriers that work against the adoption of management strategies to minimise wildfire risk at local and national levels. The paper brings together ecological, land-management, governance, planning and economic perspectives that are often treated separately, in order to clarify where current wildfire risk reduction strategies are supported by evidence and where important barriers remain. Finally, we integrate these different insights to identify key knowledge gaps and make recommendations for future action.
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Journal articleLi Z, 2026, , The Review of Financial Studies, ISSN: 0893-9454
This paper proposes a new channel through which long-term interest rates transmit to credit spreads. When life insurers carry negative duration gaps, higher rates reduce their liabilities more than assets. Rate increases therefore boost equity and risk-bearing capacity, lowering equilibrium credit spreads. Empirically, I test this channel with bond-level yields and a maturity-based discontinuity in bond ownership. Insurers’ trades confirm the mechanism: after rates rise, insurers shift portfolios towards riskier, high-yield bonds. As rates increase, bonds more heavily held by life insurers experience greater spread reductions. The results show that institutional duration mismatch shapes credit spreads and corporate financing conditions.
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Journal articleKosova R, Michaelides A, 2026,
Trust and investment loss: evidence from uk financial corporate failures
, Journal of Financial Literacy and Wellbeing, Vol: ,forthcoming, ISSN: 2753-3212How does experiencing direct investment loss affect individuals’ trust in the financial system? Exploiting recent UK corporate financial failures that generated press headlines, government debates and institutional criticisms, we design and analyse a survey involving investors in these failures. We find that direct exposure to investment losses significantly reduces trust in financial markets, regulators, big audit firms, and the likelihood of future risky asset market participation. Moreover, trust loss is not fully reversible even with possible compensation. Individual characteristics are not the key drivers of trust losses/gains either. We also survey master’s students exposed to reading about these failures. Information about losses of others reduces trust but less than direct experience. Overall, our results emphasize the role of personal experience in determining trust and future investment decisions.
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Journal articleGoldman J, Iyer R, Nanda R, 2026,
Amplifying a fiscal stimulus: the role of banks
, Journal of Finance, ISSN: 0022-1082Exploiting increases in US defense spending following the 9/11 attacks, we show that the procurement-driven fiscal stimulus led to lower non-performing loans at banks.In turn, constrained banks responded by increasing lending to small businesses in not-directly-impacted counties. We find the additional economic activity enabled by the increased lending capacity is quantitatively important– amplification from this ‘credit multiplier’ is about 10%-15% as large as typical fiscal multipliers estimated inthe literature. Since intermediaries are more likely to face constraints in times when a fiscal stimulus is needed, this ’credit multiplier’ can substantially amplify a stimulus’overall impact in downturns.
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Journal articleKacperczyk M, Peydro J-L, 2026, , The Review of financial studies, ISSN: 0893-9454
We study how firm-level carbon emissions affect bank lending and real outcomes in a sample of global firms with syndicated loans. We exploit bank-level climate commitments as firm-level shocks to lending relationships, using firms' prior credit exposures to identify credit supply effects. Firms with higher emissions that previously borrowed from committed banks receive less bank credit. Evidence from lending volumes, prices, and within-firm-time loan-level data indicates a supply-side shift away from high-emission firms, not explained by borrower risk. Affected firms reduce debt, leverage, size, and investment, yet we find no reduction in future emissions, instead documenting evidence consistent with greenwashing.
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Journal articleAbadir KM, Bailey N, Distaso W, et al., 2026, , Econometric Theory, Pages: 1-28, ISSN: 0266-4666
A number of economic, financial, and climatic time series exhibit persistent cycles which are characterized by time-dependence patterns and peaks in the spectrum. In this article, we introduce a class of semiparametric cyclical–memory processes which enable the modeling of random cyclical patterns in stationary and non-stationary time series. We develop a theoretical background and asymptotic estimation theory for the frequency of a cycle represented by the location of a peak in the spectrum. The estimation procedure is easy to implement and allows for the construction of narrow confidence intervals around the location point. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the good finite sample performance of our estimator. We illustrate our method with three empirical applications. We uncover (quasi-)periodic cycles in macroeconomic series, both nominal and real (U.S. nominal GDP and real industrial production), and CO2concentration levels.
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Journal articleBolton P, White BP, Huppert J, et al., 2026, , Health Expect, Vol: 29
Assisted dying (AD) is increasingly available as a legal end-of-life option in wealthy nations. Literature on AD considers its operation and the experience of clinicians, people receiving AD, and their loved ones. It is inward-looking. The nature of AD suggests it focuses less on the technical aspects of care and more on its humanity. Accordingly, AD offers lessons for healthcare more broadly-specifically, the importance of patient- and family-centred care, respect for patient wishes, and relational care. LIVED EXPERIENCE: JH is a family member of a person who received assisted dying. The vignettes are AD's lived experience.
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