About the programme
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that even well-prepared countries can be caught off guard by a new infectious disease threat. Singapore responded strongly to contain the initial spread of the virus, but the measures taken to protect public health had broad social and economic impacts.
No two epidemics are the same, so pandemic preparedness cannot focus on a single pathogen. It must be broad, flexible and ready to respond to threats we have not yet encountered.
The challenge
Mathematical modelling plays a critical role in epidemic preparedness. We can use models ahead of time to understand the value of different response strategies, guide investment in new tools including vaccines, and provide real-time projections and scenarios during an ongoing outbreak.
However, during COVID-19, a key challenge was that the models being used were largely pathogen-specific, developed within academic environments, and difficult to rapidly adapt when a new threat emerged. Our programme is changing that.
Our approach
We are developing a family of pathogen-agnostic epidemiological models, organised not by specific pathogen, but by transmission route. This means that when a new pathogen emerges, the core model framework is already in place. It can be rapidly adapted, fitted to new data, and used to evaluate response options, without starting from scratch.
We are focusing initially on two transmission routes that pose the greatest risk in Singapore and the wider region: respiratory transmission and mosquito-borne transmission.
Respiratory viruses, as exemplified by COVID-19 and influenza, represent the greatest threat of a major global pandemic. Mosquito-borne viruses, including dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, pose a persistent and growing threat across Southeast Asia, driven by the abundance of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in the region.
By developing robust, flexible model frameworks for both transmission families, we are building a foundation that can be rapidly adapted to a newly emerging virus within each family.
Our research aims
Aim 1: Building the Model Frameworks
We are developing two model frameworks, one for respiratory transmission and one for mosquito-borne transmission, using a consistent and reproducible approach.
Each framework will incorporate the key features that drive transmission dynamics, including population demography, contact patterns, susceptibility, and the range of interventions available to public health agencies.
We are building these models using open-access software that is widely used in the infectious disease modelling community, ensuring they can be maintained, adapted, and used beyond the immediate research team.
The frameworks will be flexible enough to capture a broad range of pathogen characteristics, from transmissibility and severity through to the potential for asymptomatic spread, so that they can be rapidly adapted when a new threat emerges.
Aim 2: Identifying National Data Needs
A model is only as good as the data that feeds it.
In parallel with model development, we are systematically documenting the data needed to characterise the risk of a new outbreak and evaluate response options for each transmission family.
This includes demographic data, contact patterns, hospital capacity, vaccine uptake, and surveillance data from Singapore's public health agencies.
By identifying these data needs in advance, we are ensuring that the pipelines needed to rapidly integrate real-time data into the models are in place before an outbreak begins, not during one.
Aim 3: Evaluating Policy Response Options
Models are most valuable when they can directly inform decisions.
The model frameworks are used to evaluate the impact of a range of containment and mitigation strategies for new outbreaks within each transmission family.
For respiratory transmission, we are exploring the value of non-pharmaceutical interventions, therapeutics, and broadly protective vaccines in containing and mitigating a novel influenza-like virus.
For mosquito-borne transmission, we are evaluating strategies to reduce mosquito populations and limit their contact with people, and vaccination approaches for a novel dengue-like pathogen.
The goal is to provide Singapore's public health decision-makers with a clear, evidence-based picture of the options available to them, and the trade-offs involved, before a crisis hits.
Aim 4: Training and Capacity Building
We will ensure that the models we develop can be used and adapted by public health agency staff in Singapore, not just by the academic teams that built them.
We will hold two training workshops during the programme. The first will provide technical training in the use of our modelling software for transmission model development. The second will take the form of a hackathon, bringing together university researchers and health agency staff to work with the developed models in simulated outbreak conditions.