Most of the members of this group are from the Statistics Section and Biomaths research group of the Department of Mathematics. Below you can find a list of research areas that members of this group are currently working on and/or would like to work on by applying their developed mathematical and statistical methods.

Research areas

Research areas

Systems Biology
Statistical genomics and Epidemiology
Medical Imaging
Precision and Stratified Medicine
Analysis of clinical trials, observational and longitudinal studies
Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hartley:2026:10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759,
author = {Hartley, J and Kelly, S and Team, VS and Kemp, SA and Hanekom, W and Ndungu, T and Wong, EB and Tanser, F and Siedner, MJ and Chindimbi, N and Shahmanseh, M and Ratmann, O and Gupta, RK},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759},
journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases},
title = {Moderately age-disparate relationships dominate phylogenetically linked pairs involving young women with HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759},
volume = {169},
year = {2026}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - ObjectivesYoung women aged 15-24 years bear a disproportionate burden of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Age-disparate relationships with older men have been proposed as a major contributor to this pattern.MethodsWe conducted whole-genome sequencing of HIV in large cohort of individuals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (the Vukuzazi cohort). Samples with viral loads >50 copies/mL were sequenced. Genomes passing quality control were grouped into clusters using maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis. Potential transmission pairs were analyzed alongside participant age and sex data. A Bayesian random-effects model estimated transmission rates between demographic groups while accounting for population age-sex structure.ResultsAmong 18,025 participants enrolled in 2018-2020, 6096 were HIV-positive. Sequencing yielded 1097 genomes, identifying 89 clusters containing 205 individuals and 73 likely male-female linked phylogenetic pairs. Across pairs, men were a median of 5 years older than women (interquartile range −1 to 12). Women aged <30 years paired with men aged a median of 7 years older, whereas among women aged ≥30 years men were typically younger. After accounting for population structure, the strongest signal for transmission was between women aged 25-29 years and men up to 4 years older.ConclusionRelative transmission rates were greatest with moderate age differences. Large intergenerational age gaps were not dominant.
AU - Hartley,J
AU - Kelly,S
AU - Team,VS
AU - Kemp,SA
AU - Hanekom,W
AU - Ndungu,T
AU - Wong,EB
AU - Tanser,F
AU - Siedner,MJ
AU - Chindimbi,N
AU - Shahmanseh,M
AU - Ratmann,O
AU - Gupta,RK
DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759
PY - 2026///
SN - 1201-9712
TI - Moderately age-disparate relationships dominate phylogenetically linked pairs involving young women with HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
T2 - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108759
VL - 169
ER -

Contact us

If you are interested in meeting with members of the group please contact Marina Evangelou